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Market Aggregates

California Governor 2026: Top-Two Primary Advancement

Probabilities of advancing from CA's top-two gubernatorial primary to the general election. Each venue's bid/ask midprices are normalized to a sum of ~200%, then weighted according to platform liquidity and subjective quality factors.

Polls close
Jun 2, 2026, 11:00 PM EDT
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Supercycle Odds

Xavier Becerra
97.5%-99.0%
2 sources
97.9%
-0.0%
Steve Hilton
97.5%-98.0%
2 sources
97.6%
-0.0%
Zoltan Istvan
0.50%
1 sources
0.50%
+0.0%
Ché Ahn
0.50%
1 sources
0.50%
+0.0%
Katie Porter
0.41%
1 sources
0.41%
+0.0%
Kyle Langford
0.41%
1 sources
0.41%
+0.0%
Ryan Tillman
0.41%
1 sources
0.41%
+0.0%
Matt Mahan
0.08%-1.00%
2 sources
0.36%
+0.0%
96.2%97.2%98.1%99.1%100.0%Jul 4Jul 5Jul 7Jul 9Jul 11

Normalized Platform Odds

Polymarket
Xavier Becerra
97.5%
-0.0%
PredictIt
Xavier Becerra
99.0%
0.0%
Polymarket
Steve Hilton
97.5%
-0.0%
PredictIt
Steve Hilton
98.0%
0.0%
Polymarket
Zoltan Istvan
0.50%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Ché Ahn
0.50%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Katie Porter
0.41%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Kyle Langford
0.41%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Ryan Tillman
0.41%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Matt Mahan
0.08%
+0.0%
PredictIt
Matt Mahan
1.00%
0.0%
Polymarket
Eric Swalwell
0.08%
+0.0%
PredictIt
Eric Swalwell
1.00%
0.0%
Polymarket
Tom Steyer
0.08%
+0.0%
PredictIt
Tom Steyer
1.00%
0.0%
Polymarket
Ethan Agarwal
0.33%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Antonio Villaraigosa
0.33%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Raji Rab
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Javen Allen
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Betty Yee
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Leonard Jackson
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Nicholas Thompson
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Sharifah Hardie
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Daniel Mercuri
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Jimmy Parker
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Derek Grasty
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Ian Calderon
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Thunder Parley
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Dylan Colbert
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Chad Bianco
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Brandon Jones
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
David Serpa
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Ramsey Robinson
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Carolina Buhler
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Tony Thurmond
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Sophia Brink
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Elaine Culotti
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
David Thelen
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Leo Zacky
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Nicki Minaj
0.08%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Butch Ware
0.08%
+0.0%