Michigan State Capitol at dusk with market chart lines
Market Aggregates

Michigan Senate 2026: Democratic Primary

Probabilities of winning Michigan's Democratic U.S. Senate primary. Each venue's bid/ask midprices are normalized to a sum of ~100%, then weighted according to platform liquidity and subjective quality factors.

Final statewide polls close
Aug 4, 2026, 9:00 PM EDT
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Supercycle Odds

Abdul El-Sayed
96.6%-99.2%
3 sources
98.6%
+0.0%
Haley Stevens
0.09%-1.47%
3 sources
0.40%
+0.0%
Dana Nessel
0.09%-0.84%
2 sources
0.32%
+0.0%
Rashida Tlaib
0.09%-0.84%
2 sources
0.32%
+0.0%
Mallory McMorrow
0.09%-0.84%
3 sources
0.31%
+0.0%
Sarah Anthony
0.09%
1 sources
0.09%
+0.0%
Kristen McDonald Rivet
0.09%
1 sources
0.09%
+0.0%
Andy Levin
0.09%
1 sources
0.09%
+0.0%
0.00%25.0%50.0%75.0%100.0%Oct 29Oct 30Nov 1Nov 3Nov 5

Normalized Platform Odds

Polymarket
Abdul El-Sayed
99.2%
+0.0%
PredictIt
Abdul El-Sayed
96.6%
+0.0%
Manifold
Abdul El-Sayed
98.4%
0.0%
Polymarket
Haley Stevens
0.09%
+0.0%
PredictIt
Haley Stevens
0.84%
+0.0%
Manifold
Haley Stevens
1.47%
0.0%
Polymarket
Dana Nessel
0.09%
+0.0%
PredictIt
Dana Nessel
0.84%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Rashida Tlaib
0.09%
+0.0%
PredictIt
Rashida Tlaib
0.84%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Mallory McMorrow
0.09%
+0.0%
PredictIt
Mallory McMorrow
0.84%
+0.0%
Manifold
Mallory McMorrow
0.11%
0.0%
Polymarket
Sarah Anthony
0.09%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Kristen McDonald Rivet
0.09%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Andy Levin
0.09%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Matt Sahr
0.09%
+0.0%