Michigan State Capitol at dusk with market chart lines
Market Aggregates

Michigan Senate 2026: Democratic Primary

Probabilities of winning Michigan's Democratic U.S. Senate primary. Each venue's bid/ask midprices are normalized to a sum of ~100%, then weighted according to platform liquidity and subjective quality factors.

Final statewide polls close
Aug 4, 2026, 9:00 PM EDT
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Supercycle Odds

Abdul El-Sayed
94.4%-98.4%
4 sources
97.4%
+0.7%
Haley Stevens
1.65%-3.07%
4 sources
2.04%
-1.0%
Dana Nessel
0.05%-0.84%
3 sources
0.22%
+0.2%
Rashida Tlaib
0.05%-0.84%
3 sources
0.22%
+0.2%
Mallory McMorrow
0.05%-0.84%
4 sources
0.19%
+0.1%
Kristen McDonald Rivet
0.05%-0.09%
2 sources
0.07%
+0.0%
Matt Sahr
0.05%-0.09%
2 sources
0.07%
+0.0%
Sarah Anthony
0.05%-0.09%
2 sources
0.07%
+0.0%
0.00%25.0%50.0%75.0%100.0%Jul 29Jul 30Aug 1Aug 2Aug 3

Normalized Platform Odds

Kalshi
Abdul El-Sayed
98.4%
+1.9%
Polymarket
Abdul El-Sayed
97.4%
+0.5%
PredictIt
Abdul El-Sayed
94.4%
pending
Manifold
Abdul El-Sayed
97.0%
pending
Kalshi
Haley Stevens
1.65%
-1.6%
Polymarket
Haley Stevens
1.96%
-0.8%
PredictIt
Haley Stevens
3.07%
pending
Manifold
Haley Stevens
2.86%
pending
Kalshi
Dana Nessel
0.05%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Dana Nessel
0.09%
+0.0%
PredictIt
Dana Nessel
0.84%
pending
Kalshi
Rashida Tlaib
0.05%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Rashida Tlaib
0.09%
+0.0%
PredictIt
Rashida Tlaib
0.84%
pending
Kalshi
Mallory McMorrow
0.05%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Mallory McMorrow
0.09%
+0.0%
PredictIt
Mallory McMorrow
0.84%
pending
Manifold
Mallory McMorrow
0.14%
pending
Kalshi
Kristen McDonald Rivet
0.05%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Kristen McDonald Rivet
0.09%
+0.0%
Kalshi
Matt Sahr
0.05%
pending
Polymarket
Matt Sahr
0.09%
+0.0%
Kalshi
Sarah Anthony
0.05%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Sarah Anthony
0.09%
+0.0%
Kalshi
Andy Levin
0.05%
+0.0%
Polymarket
Andy Levin
0.09%
+0.0%