Michigan State Capitol at dusk with market chart lines
Market Aggregates

Michigan Senate 2026: Democratic Primary

Probabilities of winning Michigan's Democratic U.S. Senate primary. Each venue's bid/ask midprices are normalized to a sum of ~100%, then weighted according to platform liquidity and subjective quality factors.

Final statewide polls close
Aug 4, 2026, 9:00 PM EDT
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Supercycle Odds

Abdul El-Sayed
96.6%-100.0%
4 sources
99.0%
+0.0%
Haley Stevens
0.00%-1.47%
4 sources
0.25%
+0.0%
Dana Nessel
0.00%-0.84%
3 sources
0.20%
+0.0%
Rashida Tlaib
0.00%-0.84%
3 sources
0.20%
+0.0%
Mallory McMorrow
0.00%-0.84%
4 sources
0.19%
+0.0%
Kristen McDonald Rivet
0.00%-0.09%
2 sources
0.05%
+0.0%
Matt Sahr
0.00%-0.09%
2 sources
0.05%
+0.0%
Sarah Anthony
0.00%-0.09%
2 sources
0.05%
+0.0%
0.00%25.0%50.0%75.0%100.0%Sep 11Sep 12Sep 14Sep 16Sep 18

Normalized Platform Odds

Kalshi
Abdul El-Sayed
100.0%
0.0%
Polymarket
Abdul El-Sayed
99.2%
+0.0%
PredictIt
Abdul El-Sayed
96.6%
+0.0%
Manifold
Abdul El-Sayed
98.4%
0.0%
Kalshi
Haley Stevens
0.00%
0.0%
Polymarket
Haley Stevens
0.09%
+0.0%
PredictIt
Haley Stevens
0.84%
+0.0%
Manifold
Haley Stevens
1.47%
0.0%
Kalshi
Dana Nessel
0.00%
0.0%
Polymarket
Dana Nessel
0.09%
+0.0%
PredictIt
Dana Nessel
0.84%
+0.0%
Kalshi
Rashida Tlaib
0.00%
0.0%
Polymarket
Rashida Tlaib
0.09%
+0.0%
PredictIt
Rashida Tlaib
0.84%
+0.0%
Kalshi
Mallory McMorrow
0.00%
0.0%
Polymarket
Mallory McMorrow
0.09%
+0.0%
PredictIt
Mallory McMorrow
0.84%
+0.0%
Manifold
Mallory McMorrow
0.11%
0.0%
Kalshi
Kristen McDonald Rivet
0.00%
0.0%
Polymarket
Kristen McDonald Rivet
0.09%
+0.0%
Kalshi
Matt Sahr
0.00%
0.0%
Polymarket
Matt Sahr
0.09%
+0.0%
Kalshi
Sarah Anthony
0.00%
0.0%
Polymarket
Sarah Anthony
0.09%
+0.0%
Kalshi
Andy Levin
0.00%
0.0%
Polymarket
Andy Levin
0.09%
+0.0%