Market Aggregates

Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Texas?

Probabilities of winning Texas's 2026 U.S. Senate general election. Each venue's bid/ask midprices are normalized to a sum of ~100%, then weighted according to platform liquidity and subjective quality factors.

Final statewide polls close

Nov 3, 2026, 9:00 PM EST

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Supercycle Odds

Republican

56.5%-63.5%

4 sources

58.3%

+0.4%

Democratic

36.5%-42.6%

4 sources

41.1%

-1.1%

Normalized Platform Odds

Kalshi

Republican

57.5%

0.0%

Manifold

Republican

57.4%

+0.4%

Polymarket

Republican

56.5%

+0.5%

PredictIt

Republican

63.5%

+1.0%

Kalshi

Democratic

42.5%

0.0%

Manifold

Democratic

42.6%

-0.4%

Polymarket

Democratic

41.5%

-2.5%

PredictIt

Democratic

36.5%

-1.5%