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Market Aggregates

Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Texas?

Probabilities of winning Texas's 2026 U.S. Senate general election. Each venue's bid/ask midprices are normalized to a sum of ~100%, then weighted according to platform liquidity and subjective quality factors.

Final statewide polls close
Nov 3, 2026, 9:00 PM EST
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Supercycle Odds

Democratic
49.3%-50.5%
4 sources
49.7%
+0.2%
Republican
48.5%-50.7%
4 sources
49.7%
-0.1%
45.3%47.8%50.2%52.7%55.2%Aug 22Aug 24Aug 26Aug 28Aug 29

Normalized Platform Odds

Kalshi
Democratic
49.5%
0.0%
Manifold
Democratic
49.3%
-0.7%
Polymarket
Democratic
49.5%
0.0%
PredictIt
Democratic
50.5%
+1.0%
Kalshi
Republican
50.5%
0.0%
Manifold
Republican
50.7%
+0.7%
Polymarket
Republican
48.5%
0.0%
PredictIt
Republican
49.5%
-1.0%